What a close season in 2018.  1 win separating the Top 8.

And more importantly a winning betting season for me and anyone that followed throughout the whole year.  The first two months were absolutely awesome.  Then the Origin period hit and I didn’t really make any progress from there but kept the ship on course.

What was surprising is that both betting early in the week compared to on the day of the game didn’t matter that much.  If Pinnacle offered odds early in the week I would be taking them.  I had a higher strike rate slightly (1.5%) betting earlier in the week.  So before lineup adjustments or injuries (that Storm game last round got me though!).

I always make slight adjustments with my numbers throughout the season but the Origin period showed I needed to take those adjustments to another degree to maintain the good results.

Also don’t bet the last round!  I knew this coming into it and I still posted, a bit of overconfidence in my system and trusting my numbers too much.

So here are my total results and then I will separate some parts of the season and see how they compare.  I will also break down some other areas where I can be successful and maybe run some of those plays going forward in 2019.

Thanks for following and I hope you made some cash either straight tailing my plays or using them to help with your betting.  By the way I won’t be betting on the Finals, going to be very hard finding value on Point Spreads this season.

 

 

Season Total Early Bet Results (Odds with Bet365)

49-32-2 +12.26 Units   60.5% Strikerate  15.1% ROI

 

Season Total Gameday Bet Results (Odds with Pinnacle)

51-36-2 +13.32 Units  58.6% Strikerate  15.31% ROI

 

Season Total Combined Betting Results

100-68-4 +25.58 Units  59.5% Strikerate  15.23% ROI

 

Early Bets (Origin Period including Round after)

3-Jun SYD+1.5 0.9
8-Jun CAN ML -1
GLD+8.5 0.9
9-Jun NEW+8 0.9
PAR+7.5 0.9
11-Jun BUL+6.5 0.9
14-Jun PAR+10.5 -1
15-Jun NQL+2 -1
16-Jun BUL-2.5 -1
17-Jun NEW+10.5 -1
28-Jun STI-8.5 -1
29-Jun NZW+1.5 -1
30-Jun BUL+4.5 0.9
1-Jul NQL+9.5 0.9
7-Jul BUL+6.5 0.9
13-Jul PEN+1.5 -1
14-Jul BUL+10.5 -1
NQL+5.5 -1
15-Jul STI-8 -1
GLD+8.5 0.9
20-Jul CRO-4.5 -1
21-Jul NEW+1.5 0.87
WST+9.5 0.9
NQL+4.5 -1
22-Jul MAN+4.5 -1

11 Wins 14 Losses  -4.13 Units

 

Gameday Bets (Origin Period including Round after)

3-Jun SYD+1.5 0.95
8-Jun CAN ML -1
GLD+4 0.94
9-Jun PAR+6 0.95
NEW+8 0.94
11-Jun BUL+8 0.9
14-Jun PAR+10.5 -1
15-Jun NQL+1.5 -1
17-Jun NEW+10.5 -1
28-Jun STI-8.5 -1
29-Jun NZW-1.5 -1
30-Jun BUL+4.5 0.96
1-Jul NQL+8.5 0.95
6-Jul PEN+4.5 0.98
7-Jul BUL+6.5 0.93
13-Jul PEN+4.5 -1
14-Jul BUL+10.5 -1
NQL+4.5 -1
MEL-2 -1
15-Jul STI-8 -1
20-Jul CRO-7.5 -1
21-Jul WST+8.5 0.91
NQL+4.5 -1
22-Jul MAN+6 -1
NZW+4.5 -1

10 Wins 15 Losses -5.59 Units

 

ROUND 25

Early Bets & Gameday Bets both 0-4 -4 units.

 

Basically if I didn’t bet on the Origin period and Round 25, in both Early and Gameday bets.  I would have been up 20 units in each over the season and over 60% Strikerate easily.

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